Source: ESignal
Friday, May 29, 2009
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
Economic Week in Review 15 May
- The US Trade Balance worsened in line with expectations as the global recession is decreasing demand for US exports. Exports were weak and the news is negative for manufacturing.
- Treasury Budget indicated a record $20.9 billion deficit for April with the fiscal year deficit also at a record of $802.3.
- Retail Sales were unexpectedly negative and the decline was broad based.
- EIA Petroleum Report reflected a draw in crude and gasoline inventories suggesting an improvement in energy demand.
- PPI (Producer Inflation) increased with food prices leading the way. Rising energy and food prices do not corroborate the "deflation" propaganda promoted by the government.
- Jobless Claims showed large increases in both new claims and continuing claims. The overall unemployment rate now stands at 8.9% continues to increase.
- CPI (Consumer Inflation) showed an increase at the core level, mainly as a result of tobacco tax hikes.
- TIC (Treasury International Capital) showed that foreign holdings of US assets increased mainly in equities and treasuries. China and Japan both increased holdings of treasuries.
- Industrial Production decreased in April.
- Consumer Sentiment improved specifically with respect to consumer expectations of economic improvement.
Light week for economic data this week
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Commodity Sector Overview 02 May
Commodity Sectors
Source: Stockcharts.com
Base Metals, Energy, and AGs have performed quite well off the Mar Lows-
China's infrastructure stimulus is certainly a contributing factor to demand for metals
(Beyond HeadBangers Ball of course)
The rampant money printing of the Federal Reserve cannot be underestimated in the valuation of dollar-denominated assets going forward
SP 500 Sector Overview 02 May
SP Sectors
Source: Stockcharts.com
7 of the 9 SP sectors are currently in an overbought state
(only Healthcare & Telecom are in a neutral state)
Leaders of Rally (Financials, Consumer Disc., Industrials) should be
observed closely
Economic Week in Review 02 May
- Case-Schiller Housing Price Indices (both 10 and 20 City) fell around 2%. Prices fell notably in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco with continuing trouble in Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago.
- Consumer Confidence reflected the biggest one-month jump in four years. The report suggested that consumers see stable price conditions ahead.
- GDP contracted more than expected for the first quarter.
- EIA crude oil inventory report showed another weekly build (increase) in supply. Continuing builds in energy supply reflect continued lack of energy demand in the broad economy.
- FOMC Announcement kept target rate unchanged and maintained its plan for "quantitative easing". The FOMC statement included: "The Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments." Fed's Balance Sheet is expanded by $2 Trillion and the Treasury deficit spending increases by $2 Trillion.
- Personal Income fell in March.
- Continuing Jobless Claims increased. Initial Jobless Claims declined.
- Consumer Sentiment improved suggesting that consumers may think the worst is past.
- ISM Manufacturing index reflected a slowing rate of contraction with new orders improving and backlog orders improving.
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