Weekend News 29 Jan

• Earnings Season Update (Zero Hedge)
• SP 500 Technical View (Zero Hedge)
• The Home Loan Modification Failure (Seeking Alpha)
• Chinese monetary tightening weakens equities and base metals (Bloomberg)
• Dollar rallies to six month high- Beginning of Dollar Carry Trade unwind? (Bloomberg)

News 29 Jan

• Marc Faber discusses potential of SP 500 decline of 20%. (Seeking Alpha)
• Democrats expand debt ceiling... Again. (ZeroHedge)
• Yen looks to be preferred funding currency. (ZeroHedge)
• Housing on "Life Support" due to Foreclosures & Unemployment- So what? GDP's great! (Bloomberg)

TF 5 Day 27 Jan

Source: ESignal

UNG 5 Day 27 Jan

Source: ESignal

AIG: Collusion Of Epic Proportions Between Goldman's US Treasury Branch And Goldman Sachs Proper

AIG: Collusion Of Epic Proportions Between Goldman's US Treasury Branch And Goldman Sachs Proper

TF 5 Day 25 Jan

Source: ESignal

TF Long Term 25 Jan

Source: FinViz.com

UNG 5 Day 25 Jan

Source: ESignal

Nat Gas Long Term 25 Jan

Source: FinViz.com

Massive Volume Anomaly in SP 500 Futures 13 Jan

• SP 500 Futures Volume Anomaly II (Zerohedge)
• SP 500 Futures Volume Anomaly I (Zerohedge)

Kyle Bass discusses US Debt Risks 13 Jan

News 12 Jan

• Federal Reserve Seeks to protect U.S. Bailout Secrets (Bloomberg)
• Foreign Banks line up to become primary dealers courtesy of Federal Reserve mischief (Zerohedge)

Foreign Banks Line Up At The Primary Dealer Trough

Foreign Banks Line Up At The Primary Dealer Trough

Source: Zerohedge

Charles Biderman discusses speculation about Fed purchase of equity futures 08 Jan

TF 5 Day 10 Jan

Source: ESignal

$RUT Long Term 10 Jan

Source: ESignal

UNG 5 Day 10 Jan

Source: ESignal

UNG Long Term 10 Jan

Source: ESignal

Peter Schiff's rational thought confuses CNBC bubblehead Larry Kudlow

Peter Schiff's thoughts on Chris Dodd

Weekend News 10 Jan

• Exploring the Nature of Trader Intuition: Research from Cal-Tech (TraderPsyches)
• The Consolidation of Economic Power to D.C.- Part I (Daily Capitalist)
• The Consolidation of Economic Power to D.C.- Part II (Daily Capitalist)
• 2009 ETF Views: Somewhat divergent data- ETF AUM increased while Capital Flow declined all in context of massive equity rally on declining volume. (Index Universe)
• Weekly Indicator Update (Trader Feed)
• Weekly Review (IOAMT Blog)

Niall Ferguson's take on recovery 08 Nov 2009

Robin Williams Analogy of Investment Banker Squids to Junkies

A +316,000 NFP Print On Friday? The BLS Seasonal Fudge Factors Make It Very Likely

A +316,000 NFP Print On Friday? The BLS Seasonal Fudge Factors Make It Very Likely

Continuing claims data suffers from the same biases as initial claims data as it is built using the same models. When unemployment claims are running high it assumes a greater number of them are attributable to seasonality. And we happen to be heading into the weeks where the highest percentage of claims will be stripped out in the name of seasonality.

We spent 27 consecutive weeks this year (April through October 3) with the reported continuing claims numbers in the 6M+ range. Over the next 10 weeks the number gradually declined to just under 5M. In the next two weeks we believe the adjustment model can push the figure to 4.1M and possibly produce a below 4M print in January. (At this point we expect it to rise again in the spring.)

There are two factors at work here. The first is the fact that individuals can only remain in the data series for 26 weeks. After that they are eliminated, even if they are still jobless and collecting benefits (which can last up to 79 weeks now). As a result the number is generally pressured lower by the fact that people are getting kicked out the back end of the data faster than they're coming in the front end, even if they're still jobless.

The second factor is the seasonal adjustment that suffers the same biases we discussed for initial claims. Specifically 14% of continuing claims this week will be assumed to be seasonal (up from 2% last week) and 30% of next week's claims will be assumed seasonal. This will translate into 1.2M people being erased from the headline number next week, vs. only 109K last week.

Here is the real crux of the issue, in our view, all the market ever really reacts to is the m/m change in seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll. And that number is very heavily influenced by the m/m change in the seasonal multiplier.

Every now and then circumstances come along that in our view lead to predictable distortions in the data that will create the appearance of a trend, whether or not that trend is real. We believe we are at one of those points. What is really happening and what appears to be happening with the economy can be two very different things for a certain period of time.

Source: Zerohedge

TrimTabs Asks: Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March; Gives Some Suggestions

TrimTabs Asks: Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March; Gives Some Suggestions

MarketWatch Calls Out Fed To Disprove It Is Manipulating Index Futures

MarketWatch Calls Out Fed To Disprove It Is Manipulating Index Futures

Mid Week News 05 Jan

Happy New Year!

It's back to the grindstone for our self-aware market liquidity providing Skynet & Hal 9000 and their vampire squidlet henchmen & women. Continued anemic volume and mass insider selling- no problem! Let's huddle around our solar panels for warmth and buy the high!

• China to join competition for oil & natural resources (Bloomberg)
• Chesapeake sells interest in Barnett Shale to Total SA for $2.25 Billion (Bloomberg)
• Heating Oil Surge- Global Warming Imminent (Bloomberg)
• UK in deep freeze- Gas usage may be restricted (Bloomberg)
• UNG v. USO (ETF Database)