- Case-Schiller Home Price Index data showed steepening rates of contraction this week both in the short term and year-on-year basis. Housing prices are still declining.
- Consumer Confidence stabilized at the bottom but indicated that future buying plans are eroding further. There was easing in the pessimism over the future in the jobs market.
- ISM Manufacturing Index shows that new orders for durable goods improved. This data will build speculation that the worst of the recession may have all ready occurred or be occurring.
- EIA Petroleum report showed another rise in crude oil stock of 2.8 million barrels. Inventories are now at 3 year highs and on the demand side gasoline demand appears to be declining. Demand for energy remains weak.
- The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% which was less than the consensus 50 basis points expectation. No new nonstandard monetary policy was announced.
- Jobless Claims reflected the largest losses yet in March. Both first time and continuing claims moved up sharply higher.
- Friday's Employment situation report reflected widespread job losses in March while February numbers remained unrevised and January revision showed an increase in job losses.
- The unemployment rate is currently the highest since November 1983. Job losses have remained over 600,000 for the last four consecutive months. So, no jobs- no income- no spending, where do the corporate earnings for the S&P come from to drive equities higher?? For better or worse, 70% of our GDP is based on consumer spending.
*Earnings Season begins Tuesday with Alcoa earnings. Bespoke Investment Group notes that since mid 2001, SP 500 performance during earnings season is a cumulative -26.66% while SP 500 performance during non-earnings season is a cumulative 2.87%*
